Macro-level Predictions And What They Mean To You
Admissions insights provided by admissionsdecisions.com
Welcome! As is custom at the beginning of the year, Admissions Decisions will provide some predictions in the admissions world that we believe will impact how admissions offices work and consequently, how you or others apply.
As predictions, we are basing this on our intuition and interpretation of current events. As soon, do not rely on this as legal or financial advice. Some of these may also begin occurring in 2023, but the impacts may not be felt until years beyond (especially number 3).
Without further ado, here are our 5 predictions for 2023.
1. Race-conscious admissions will go away in their current form
The current Supreme Court cases centered on affirmative action will successfully overturn Bollinger precedent and will create a dichotomy:
Public universities will not be allowed to ask an individual’s race in their applications and will not be able to consider the race of an individual in the application process
Private universities will not be allowed to ask an individual’s race, but will be able to consider race as it pertains to their identity
Diversity continues to be deemed a legitimate practice (e.g., veteran status, geographic, etc.)
Why this matters:
Race-conscious admissions have allowed individuals of historically marginalized groups (e.g., African-Americans) to have their race considered as a factor into undergraduate admissions. The end of this policy would remove the factor as a consideration into admissions, and potentially alter the racial make-up of the college or university.
What this likely means for admissions:
Race is removed as an explicit factor in admissions
Admissions officers will revamp their policies to achieve diversity through race-neutral means
Admissions offices will provide an optional essay that allows students to speak to their background and how it influences their identity as a way to allow students to speak about their race on their own without explicitly asking for it
What this means for you:
Our prediction is that colleges will not abandon diversity as a goal and will simply find a new way to achieve a diverse student body using other data points to achieve diversity (e.g., using geographic data coupled with socio-economic indicators to achieve a specific end)
For students, this means your competitive profile will need be different.
In the race-conscious world, a Hispanic female with strong SATs and GPA from a public school would be an academic profile.
In this new world, the profile would instead be “female with strong SATS and GPA from a public school.”
This likely means to stand out, the candidate would be compared to others within their region, which means her candidacy would be reviewed against others in her region (e.g., California)
This would mean the “hook” for a student would likely need to be different if it is focused on diversity - what unique aspect of your identity can provide some different perspective to the college or university learning environment?
Additionally, this does end the “box checking” for selective admissions, where an individual selects a race (often Native Americans) with no cultural affinity associated with the group as a way to gain a competitive advantage.
This is not a significant departure from today’s undergraduate admissions world, but it does mean that a student of color is likely to need a national identifier (e.g., National Achievement Winner) to stand out against other demographic comparisons.
Key note: International students WOULD be able to continue using their international identities as a case for diversity and a consideration for the college in diversifying their colleges.
2. Formal Standardized Testing Requirements Will Return For Undergrad
Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, colleges have relaxed standardized test requirements and made a significant shift toward test-optional status. Admissions Decisions predicts this trend will be reversed:
Colleges and universities that are STEM heavy will be the first to require the SAT and ACT, either for the program or the college/university as a whole.
Liberal arts colleges that are competing for enrollment will likely keep the SAT/ACT optional to have flexibility with who they accept
Elite colleges (e.g., Ivy League) will continue to advertise themselves as SAT/ACT optional, knowing that students will continue submit the SAT/ACT as an unofficial requirement
Everyone else will slowly transition back to the SAT/ACT requirement
Why This Matters:
The requirement means that students will no longer be able to take the SAT/ACT and decide if their score is competitive enough to show.
Statistically, applicants have not stopped taking the SAT/ACT, even in the test optional world. But standardized test score requirements for STEM-related fields will make the application process even more competitive than what it is now.
What This Means For Admissions:
Most of the research on test-optional admissions has suggested two things:
Those who submit test scores tend to do better in the beginning of college than those who do not, with the gap narrowing as students complete college
Admissions officers are inconsistent with how they weight the SAT in a test-optional environment
The simplest way to solve that is to require the SAT/ACT and then reweight it as a decision-factor. In that situation:
Applicants can be more easily eliminated on an unspoken minimum SAT score requirement
A reweighting of standardized testing gives them the opportunity to flex its importance in some instances while minimizing it in others.
What This Means For You:
On the front-end, it means that you have to take the SAT/ACT, and that you will need to submit your test scores in certain scenarios. That’s not much of a practical change, since most applicants continued to take the SAT/ACT even when optional.
But practically speaking, it means it is even MORE important to know the schools you are applying to. How you apply to MIT will be very different than how you apply to NYU, which will be very different to how you apply to the University of Texas.
Because the way that you market yourself will be different, the emphasis you put on the SAT/ACT will also be different.
A prospective engineering major applying to Purdue will need to have a competitive SAT/ACT score in a way that an English major applying to Wofford College may not need to.
Simply put:
Be extremely careful with selecting a college to apply to
Understand the nuances of how they will view/require the SAT/ACT
Engage in as much SAT/ACT prep as possible as an insurance policy to get the highest score you can
3. Colleges and Universities Partner With Non-Traditional Education Providers
Three macro trends are influencing the higher education world:
Increased college debt relative to income is creating serious questions about the value of a college degree
College curriculum, particularly liberal arts, are designed to create well-rounded students but not necessarily tie them to a specific job outcome, which is problematic in a changing economic environment
Online and other non-traditional education providers are leveraging technology to bring learning opportunities outside of the traditional classroom model
Based on those trends, Admissions Decisions predicts:
Colleges and universities will develop a “pod” approach to developing and sharing content with each other
Example: College A develops a blockchain curriculum. Rather than develop that same curriculum, College B and C will enter into a partnership agreement to “leverage” College A’s curriculum and courses for students at their respective colleges.
Colleges and universities will partner with non-traditional education groups to accelerate the development and launching of new curriculum
The curriculum will be developed by a disruptor and vetted to meet educational standards of the college or university
Combined, colleges and universities will offer non-traditional offerings that provide industry recognized certifications or trainings that lend the college’s credibility while increasing the university’s reach.
Why This Matters:
The best way to explain this is through an example.
Let’s use digital payments as an example. For those unaware, digital payments covers any electronic payment made using a digital device (e.g., Apple Pay). This is an ever-increasing market with new jobs being created daily.
In the current education system, you have a few ways to “learn” this area:
Go to college and do some type of extracurriculars in digital payments and hope for a job in the space where you will learn on the job
You can pursue training through online education communities and hope that the industry recognizes the value (e.g., Khan Academy)
You can pursue grad school where you may be able to get a master’s degree with specialization, such as a degree in Fintech.
All of those options are fairly inefficient. Hope is not a strategy (option 1), online education communities are inconsistent in how well they are received (option 2), and grad school is not a great way to encourage people to be ready for the workforce, especially in light of increased debt (option 3).
A partnership between universities and disruptors provides a fourth option: one where the credibility of a university is paired with the nimbleness of disruptors to provide educational opportunities that are directly tied to a changing economy.
What This Means For Admissions:
In our view, college admissions will fall into one of two categories:
Colleges with significant resources will develop their own individual partnerships
Colleges without significant resources will pool resources together and develop partnerships with other colleges
Colleges in the first category likely have little change in their admissions process, outside of separate application processes for specific certifications, most often online.
Colleges in the second category will likely have two different admissions processes - one for the regular students and one for programs that are jointly coordinated with other colleges.
What That Means For You:
The most immediate shift is in the college selection process before the application is even completed. Colleges that have both a degree program and an online learning or certification program that be completed simultaneously will have the ability to offer students a more flexible degree that better prepares them for the workforce.
For the non-traditional full-time degree seeker, this could be a viable alternative to the private, for-profit online college that promise flexibility but often have financial challenges and low graduation rates
For those that believe they need grad school, investigate whether that is still the case in this new online learning environment
Review whether the college you are attending has a partnership with another college(s) that offer an extended course catalogue
For those who would normally not choose college, there is now a possibility that you could apply to a non-degree seeking program and get training to get to work sooner (e.g., someone wanting to learn how to code online to become a developer) but now have the backing of a major institution that sets you apart in the workforce.
In summary:
Evaluate the colleges you choose to apply to for both their degree and certificate programs to achieve your intended goals
Re-evaluate why you need to go to grad school and if that will still be valid in this environment
This may provide a new educational avenue for non-degree seeking candidates
4. Increase in Application Volume per Applicant, But Not All Colleges Will See This Increase
Expect an uptick in the number of total applications submitted in the next academic year, but not necessarily a corresponding increase in the number of actual applicants.
This means that applicants will apply to more colleges on average, but not all schools will feel the increase in applications equally. Instead, more selective colleges will receive the lion’s share of additional application volume.
Why This Matters:
College selectivity is ultimately a factor of two things:
The GPA/SAT statistical profile of the admitted student body
The number of students admitted vs. the number of applications received
For selective colleges, adding additional volume means that one component of selectivity will continue to become more selective - the admissions rate.
Our belief is that this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy - A student with a 1400 SAT and 4.0 GPA who 10 years ago may have only applied to 5 schools now will apply to 7 because that student believes that the admissions process has gotten more competitive.
Because there are now more qualified applicants applying to more colleges for the same positions, colleges will have more applicants to choose from and the selective will get even more selective over time.
What This Means For Admissions:
For selective colleges, a greater pool of applicants and the ability to be more selective with who they choose
For less selective colleges, there is a trickle down effect. If more students are applying to more colleges, assuming options increase, it is less easy to know how many accepted students will ultimately enroll
Student A applies to 3 schools and is accepted by 2, while Student B applies to 10 schools and is accepted by 5. A college has a great shot of Student A choosing them, which means yield from the admitted student list goes up, while the same college does not have the same odds with Student B since they have more options.
Waitlists will become even more important to fill a class
Remember, a waitlist is a way to ensure target enrollment for a given college. For example, the University of Chicago accepts 2000 students, with a target enrollment of 1700. If only 1600 of the students accepted choose to enroll, they now have 100 slots. The waitlist would be used to fill those additional spots.
In an environment where there are more students applying to more colleges, the ability to guarantee yield based on who is accepted will be more difficult.
What this means for you:
Game theory says the best outcome is if everyone cooperates and applies to fewer colleges to have less overall competition on a per university basis.
But since everyone is not acting rationally, you have to make the best choice out of those that are left. And that is to increase the number of applications you submit, with a strong focus on making sure you have the proper reach, safety, and target schools to give yourself the best odds.
This also will mean that the definition of reach, safety, and target will likely change due to application volume increases not being evenly distributed. In other words, you would expect Yale to see a record number of applications, but not necessarily LSU -Monroe. In that situation, you may become even more competitive with safety schools (and therefore more attractive for financial aid), which could shift which college you ultimately choose.
It also means that the waitlist for colleges becomes even more valuable for getting into a target school, which may further favor children of alumni, or “legacies.”
5. Expect Colleges To Slash The Cost of Attendance
Similar to point #3, the macro-trends at the moment are questioning if a degree is worth the tuition, at the same time there is a trend in college closures and consolidations, that will only accelerate over the next decade.
For colleges to stay competitive in this environment, there will be some that provide degrees at significant discount. That is enabled by:
Colleges having a strong financial position that allows them to charge less in tuition
Technology that can leveraged (again, see point #3) to lower educational costs
Decline in the for-profit college scene (e.g., ITT Tech)
Why This Matters:
One of the reasons why the value of a college degree is being questioned is because of the cost associated with it.
If colleges are beginning to cut costs for students, that argument begins to fail. Remember, this is not just a battle for college today, it’s about a college’s viability over the next 10 years. Students with less college debt are more likely to:
Enjoy a higher standard of living
Donate money to their alma mater
Encourage their children to attend in the future
With the decrease in family sizes and delays in when parents are even having children, colleges will no longer be able to rely on sheer volume of applicants and instead focus on their value proposition to the end customer.
What This Means For Admissions:
The short answer is, it depends on the financial strength of the underlying institution.
Financially weak colleges will not be able to do this, so there will not be a shift.
For financially strong but small colleges, our expectation is that they will be more cognizant of student’s ability to pay. That does not mean everyone will need to pay the full cost of attendance, but it does mean that students who have less need may be more competitive in need-sensitive schools.
Colleges and universities will need to do a comprehensive review of their value relative to their cost. The colleges that are confident in their value will be free to charge what they want, while those who are not will have to evaluate opportunities to lower cost.
What This Means For You:
Several things:
You should have an increased focus on scholarships and being able to “self-fund.” This means focusing on how you can pay for yourself to attend college so you are less concerned with the level of aid a college is able to offer
For students that have lower household income, it likely means a shift from smaller colleges to those who can afford to offer very attractive financial aid packages to the best and brightest. If you are in this situation, the incentive is to do as well as you can academically to qualify for as much help as you can.
Students can be more selective in choosing colleges and universities by having a cost of attendance budget.
Colleges that do cut costs often have to cut something else - this means you may be signing up to take a class that is offered by another college or university, may not have on-campus.
There is one other possible consequence:
If a college were being started in today’s environment, there is an argument to be made that it would be better off being a specialty school (e.g., Rose-Hulman as a technology and engineering specialty undergrad program) than being a general liberal arts college.
The reason is because investment and costs could be optimized for a select few majors, so cost to students is directly related to the services students receive (i.e., students are not paying to support a major that isn’t related to what they are studying). These colleges often have better ROI than generalist schools, with better placement options.
While we are not predicting that shift (yet), a college that made cuts to focus themselves in one academic direction could become a more attractive college for a potential student. If that happens, future college applicants may need to reassess their application list to include colleges that are making the shift into a specialty or focus area.
Conclusion:
Realize that was a lot to read and as we stated, these are predictions based on our understanding of admissions changes. As time goes on, we will be sure to reassess if these predictions hold true or are incorrect.
The most important takeaway though:
Nothing is more important than knowing how to select schools to apply to and choosing a list of colleges and universities that are a fit for your goals.
As always, if you have questions, reach out to us. We read all of our comments and emails!